After several hours of careful research, I have concluded that the Huskies will indeed get an Automatic Qualifier to a BCS bowl game. By the time this goes to publication, it will have already happened. All of the ESPN experts, analyst and commentators will be debating the merits of the decision. The BCS system itself will be debated and people will be on both sides of that debate.
As for me, It comes as no surprise. I am fortunate to have watched a very good football team take a close 18-17 loss at Soldier Field earlier this year. At that point, it was evident to me that it would be a long season for my Iowa Hawkeyes. I watched a very talented Northern Illinois team lose a game that they should have won. They outplayed the Hawkeyes. Not that that was a difficult thing to do this year.
As I left the stadium, I found myself consoling Northern Illinois fans. I kept telling them that they should have won the game. I meant every word of it.
It is very close surrounding the sixteenth and seventeenth positions in the BCS’s probable points outcome this week. This is what I’ve found the final rankings and percentages to be based on my calculations as of Saturday night.
- Notre Dame .9959 A slight drop after Alabama gets merit points. Championship bound
- Alabama .9430 A slight increase after defeating Georgia. Championship bound
- Florida .9113 A one position increase. BCS game. Sugar
- Oregon .8670 Also a one spot jump. BCS game Fiesta
- Georgia .8237 Last weeks .860 computer will not diminish much after Bama loss. Left out
- Kansas St. .7756 That loss to Baylor still lingers. BCS game Fiesta
- Stanford .7399 Their computer rating will increase allowing them to jump LSU. BCS game Rose
- LSU .7214 Having no game allowed Stanford to leap the Tigers. Left out of BCS picture
- Texas A&M .6857 Very little going on here. Left out. Only a Heisman.
- S. Carolina .6503 Just waiting for the bowl announcements. Left out of BCS picture
- Oklahoma .6122 They probably should not have complained about going to Fiesta. Out of BCS
- Florida St. .4948 BCS bound. Orange
- Clemson .4672 Left out of BCS picture.
- Oregon St. .4457 Second best team in Oregon. No BCS
- UCLA .3186 Back to back Stanford losses left them one game shy or the Rose Bow.
- N. Illinois .2605 After analyzing probable computer rank. I’ve got you in. Michigan is very close.
- Michigan .2548 Losses against two undefeated teams plus Alabama. Nebraska loss hurt.
- Nebraska .2298 Wisconsin loss devastating and humiliating. They could almost smell the roses.
- Northwestern.2082 Nice season but came up short in a couple of close games.
- Boise .2003 Nebraska should be lower if margin of defeat was factored in computer.
- Utah St. .1819 Very quietly went about their business.
- San Jose St..1528 Like Utah St. Just played football.
- Louisville .1626 BCS bound for Sugar due to addition of Northern Illinois. Orange has last pick.
- Texas.1420 Loss to K-State has them waiting for a bowl.
- Kent St .1328 A thrilling come from behind effort in the MAC. Came up short or would be BCS
In order to come up with numbers, I took into account the following:
1. The Computers. It is not as difficult as some may think, Only four scores count from the six systems. Although the formulas are mostly secret, things like wins against top twenty five teams, conference strength(why SEC is higher), venue(yes venue), road wins vs home, losses against teams outside of the top 25 (why Nebraska could be even lower), Early season vs late season losses and pure probability are all factored. I mostly used trends, common knowledge and common sense when studying the computer rankings.
2. Last weeks ranking. Looking at the computer scores and both polls establish some trend guidelines. By using what percentage scores previously applied to a #9 or #10 etc. in the Harris and USA Today Polls gave me guidelines as to what a team would score if ranked in the same spot this week. Add in the computer’s probable score after factoring in this weeks wins and losses and divide by three.
3. Basic math skills. Its not as confusing as it seems.
So I want to be the first to congratulate Northern Illinois on going to the Orange Bowl even though they won’t hear my congratulation until after it’s official. To the fans I offered apologies to in Chicago. This should more than make up for it. Either way, congrats!
In case the BCS somehow finds a way to manipulate the computer scoring and this doesn’t occur, just pretend you are watching the 2000 Bush/Gore election and the reporters got it wrong. Dewey Wins.