In 2012, 33 senate races will be contested. Many, perhaps most, will be landslides, but quite a few will probably be close. One that looks pretty close is the New Mexico senate race, where Republican Heather Wilson is running against Democrat Martin Heinrich.
New Mexico’s politics
In elections for President, New Mexico has been a swing state. Obama beat McCain 57-42, but Bush beat Kerry 50-49, while Gore beat Bush, 48-48 (he won by 366 votes out of more than half a million cast). Polls show Obama winning easily.
Statewide, both of New Mexico’s senators are Democrats: Martin Heinrich (who is running for reelection) and Tom Udall. Two of its three representatives in the House of Representatives are Democrats
The Senate race in New Mexico
The current senator, Jeff Bingaman, is a Democrat. He is retiring. There were primaries in both parties, held on June 5. Martin Heinrich won for the Democrats and Heather Wilson for the Republicans. Heinrich is currently in the House of Representatives, and Wilson used to be.
The Democratic candidate: Martin Heinrich
Martin Heinrich supports a woman’s right to choose. He is a supporter of the rights of women and gays. He supported Obama’s stimulus package. Heinrich is a supporter of protecting the environment and was endorsed by the League of Conservation Voters. On the Issues rates him a moderate on social issues and a liberal on economic ones, but he has relatively few positions because he has not been in the House very long. He has been endorsed by Daily Kos.
The Republican candidate: Heather Wilson opposes a woman’s right to choose. She opposed the economic stimulus. She voted to make the Patriot Act permanent. She has a pro-business record and a 93 of 100 rating from the Chamber of Commerce. She is a supporter of the oil and gas industry and not a protector of the environment, getting a 10 rating from the League of Conservation Voters. Nor has she been a supporter of public health – the American Public Health Association gave her a 22 of 100 rating. On the issues rates her as conservative on both economic and social issues.
All polls show Heinrich winning reelection, by about 10 points.
- July 11: An FM3 poll has Heinrich up by 4.
- July 12: A We Ask America poll has Heinrich up by 9.
- July 17: A PPP poll has Heinrich up by 5.
- Aug 23: Rasmussen has Heinrich up by 7
- Aug 24: An internal Democratic poll from GRA also shows Heinrich up by 7
- Sep 10: The Albuquerque Journal has Heinrich up by 7
- Sep 13: PPP has Heinrich up by 9
- Sep 22: YouGov has Heinrich by 15
- Sep 29: GBA Strategies has Heinrich up by 8; Public Opinion Strategies has Heinrich by 1
- Oct 1: Rasmussen has Heinrich by 13
- Oct 2: We Ask America has Heinrich by 11
- Oct 10: GBA Strategies has Heinrich up by 13
- Oct 11: Rasmussen has Heinrich up by 13
- Oct 15: Research & Polling has Heinrich up by 9
- Oct 30: Albuquerque Journal has Heinrich up by 8
- Oct 31: GBA has Heinrich by 10; Public Opinion Strategies has Wilson by 1
Heinrich has raised a little over $2.75 million and Wilson about $3 million.
- July 11: Heinrich raised $1.4 million in the quarter, and has $1.8 million cash on hand.
- July 13: Wilson raised $1.6 in the quarter and has $1.6 million cash on hand
- Oct 15: In the quarter, Wilson raised $2.2 million and has $1 million COH
Election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Fundraising and other stuff http://www.opencongress.org/wiki/PA-Senate_Class_I_Seat
New Mexico congreesmembers: http://www.house.gov/representatives/
On the issues: Wilson: http://www.issues2000.org/Senate/Heather_Wilson.htm
Wilson website: http://HeatherWilsonforsenate.com/issues