In 2012, 33 senate races will be contested. Some look like landslides, some look closer. Among the tightest is the Senate race in Massachusetts, which pits Democrat Elizabeth Warren vs. Republican Scott Brown.
Massachusetts
In elections for President, Massachusetts has been a Democratic state. Obama won the state in 2008 (54 – 45), native John Kerry won it 62-37, and Gore won it 60-32. Way back in 1972, McGovern carried just one state against Nixon – Massachusetts. Obama is hugely favored in 2012, meaning the concentration will be on the Senate race.
Statewide, Massachusetts’ two senators include one Democrat: John Kerry and one Republican: Scott Brown, who is running for re-election. Brown won the seat that became vacant when Ted Kennedy died, beating Martha Coakley in a special election. All of Massachusetts’ 10 representatives in the House are Democrats.
The Massachusetts Senate race
Scott Brown is running for re-election. Elizabeth Warren does have a primary challenger (Marisa DelFranco) but Warren has what seems an insurmountable lead.
The Democratic candidate for senate from Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren is a former professor at Harvard Law school and was a fundamental part of the conception of the US Consumer Financial Protection bureau.
Elizabeth Warren is a strong proponent of a woman’s right to choose, favors greater transparency for financial institutions, wants to repeal DOMA and DADT and supported ENDA (all pro-equal rights for gays and lesbians stands). She is also a strong proponent of green technology and wants the USA to lead the world in its development. She wants to end tax breaks for the wealthy. On the Issues rates her slightly left of center on social issues, and somewhat more left of center on economic issues.
The Republican candidate for senate from Massachusetts
Prior to beating Martha Coakley in a special election in 2010, Brown was in the Massachusetts House of Representatives and the Massachusetts State Senate.
Scott Brown is a moderate supporter of a woman’s right to choose. He favors steep cuts in government spending and more tax cuts for all (including the wealthy). Brown supports civil unions, but not marriage, for same sex couples. He voted to extend tax breaks for corporations. He voted to prevent the EPA from regulating greenhouse gasses. He opposes ObamaCare.June 5: Scott Brown voted against the paycheck fairness act, which would help ensure that women get equal pay for equal work.
On the Issues rates him as solidly conservative on social issues and fairly conservative on economic issues.
The polls
The Massachusetts senate race has been extensively polled already. Most polls show it quite close. Most recently, a Rasmussen poll showed the race tied at 45.
- May 23: Another poll shows it tied.
- May 25: A Suffolk University poll shows Brown winning 48-47, but an earlier poll by them had Brown up by 9.
- June 4: Two new polls, one shows Brown up by 2, one shows Warren up by 2. The latter (from Western New England University) shows a big gain for Elizabeth Warren since early March.
- July 25: a poll by MassInc shows Warren up by 2
- Aug 22: a poll by PPP shows Brown up by 5
- Aug 28: Kimball Consulting has Brown up by 6
- Sep 11: Kimball Consulting now has Brown up by 1.
- Sep 16: Western New England Polling has Warren up by 5
- Sep 17: PPP has Warren up by 2
- Sep 18: Suffolk University has Warren up by 4
- Sep 19: MassInc has Warren up by 5
- Sep 22: Kimball Consulting has Brown by 1; YouGov has Warren by 1
- Sep 30: Boston Globe has Warren by 5.
- Oct 1: Mass Inc has Warren up by 2 without leaners and 4 with leaners
- Oct 8: Western New England Univ has Warren by 5; Harstad Research has her up by 6
- Oct 10: Mass Inc has Brown up by 3; YoujGov has Warren by 3 among likely voters and 5 among registered voters
- Oct 11: PPP has Warren up by 6, Rasmussen has her up by 2
- Oct 17: YouGov has Warren up by 7; PPP has her up by 9
- Oct 22: Kimball Consulting has Warren up by 2
- Oct 24: Mass Inc has Warren by 6
- Oct 26: Rasmussen has Warren by 5
- Oct 30: Univ. of New Hampshire has it tied.
- Oct 31: Suffolk Univ. has Warren by 7
- Nov 3: Kimball Consulting has Brown by 2; PPP has Warren by 6
- Nov 5: Univ. Massachusetts has Brown by 1; Western New England College has Warren by 4; YouGov has Warren by 7
Fundraising
This race has impressive fundraising for both sides. Per Open Congress Wiki, Scott Brown has raised almost $12,000,000 and Elizabeth Warren almost $16,000,000.
- July 12 – In the quarter, Brown raised $5 million and has $15.5 million cash on hand. Warren raised $8.7 million and has $13.5 million cash on hand.
- Aug 28 – In the period July 1 – Aug 17, Warren raised $3.7 million to Brown’s $2.3 million. Brown has $14.2 million COH vs. $12.3 for Warren.
- Oct 16 – for the quarter, Warren raised $12.1 million and has $7.3 million COH (but spent $3 million on upcoming ads already). Brown raised $7.4 million and has $10.2 million COH
Sources:
Election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
Polls: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/massachusetts/election_2012_massachusetts_senate
Massachusetts congreesmembers: http://www.house.gov/representatives/
On the issues: Brown: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Scott_Brown.htm
Warren: http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Elizabeth_Warren.htm
Fundraising: http://www.opencongress.org/wiki/MA-Senate_Class_I_Seat
